Could The Market Be Wrong About The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) Given Its Attractive Financial Prospects?

Stock Analysis

It is hard to get excited after looking at Mosaic's (NYSE:MOS) recent performance, when its stock has declined 31% over the past three months. However, a closer look at its sound financials might cause you to think again. Given that fundamentals usually drive long-term market outcomes, the company is worth looking at. In this article, we decided to focus on Mosaic's ROE.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

See our latest analysis for Mosaic

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Mosaic is:

24% = US$2.9b ÷ US$12b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2023).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. That means that for every $1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated $0.24 in profit.

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company's earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

To begin with, Mosaic has a pretty high ROE which is interesting. Secondly, even when compared to the industry average of 16% the company's ROE is quite impressive. As a result, Mosaic's exceptional 58% net income growth seen over the past five years, doesn't come as a surprise.

We then compared Mosaic's net income growth with the industry and we're pleased to see that the company's growth figure is higher when compared with the industry which has a growth rate of 15% in the same period.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Is MOS fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Mosaic's ' three-year median payout ratio is on the lower side at 5.3% implying that it is retaining a higher percentage (95%) of its profits. This suggests that the management is reinvesting most of the profits to grow the business as evidenced by the growth seen by the company.

Moreover, Mosaic is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to rise to 21% over the next three years. Accordingly, the expected increase in the payout ratio explains the expected decline in the company's ROE to 7.6%, over the same period.

On the whole, we feel that Mosaic's performance has been quite good. Particularly, we like that the company is reinvesting heavily into its business, and at a high rate of return. Unsurprisingly, this has led to an impressive earnings growth. Having said that, on studying current analyst estimates, we were concerned to see that while the company has grown its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to shrink in the future. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

What are the risks and opportunities for Mosaic?

NYSE:MOS

Mosaic

The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally.Show more

Rewards

Price-To-Earnings ratio (4.1x) is below the US market (15.2x)

Earnings grew by 6.8% over the past year

Risks

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 25.4% per year for the next 3 years

Share Price

Market Cap

1Y Return

Further research onMosaic

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally.

Flawless balance sheet and good value.